The Mother's Milk of Politics

Anyone paying attention to politics over the years knows just how true that old saying is. Money is the mother's milk of politics. This years gubernatorial primaries in both parties are living proof that this old saw is as true as ever. But it's not just having money that you need to focus on - it's how you get that money.

There are several fundamental ways to make sure that your campaign has all the scratch, dough, cash, mother's milk, call it what you like, that you'll need. First, you can marry it; inherit it; win the NC Edukation Lottery; earn it (a really tough way to fund your campaign) or raise it. Now, the first four ways are the simplest in that the candidate has the money in hand and can figure out how much of it he/she is willing to commit to the race. But you need a pretty substantial chunk of personal wealth to make a difference and even then there is no guarantee that your willingness to part with personal wealth will result in victory.

Now, raising the money is the hard way but even if you work hard and are a good candidate it doesn't guarantee that you'll be able to raise what you need. (I can attest personally to that truism) So how do you successfully raise the needed millions. First, there must be a sense that you are going to win. (See Beverly Perdue) Everybody loves to back a winner and the "professional" givers aren't going to spend limited donation dollars on a lost cause.

Secondly, the candidate can facilitate the outpouring of campaign contributions if that candidate is in an existing position of influence. (See Richard Moore, Walter Dalton, and Pat McCrory) Again, the "professional" givers want to make sure that people in position to impact their wants and needs, are sufficiently supported.

Third, it helps to hold an existing political position so that you can raise money in an existing political committee, then roll that money over into a new political committee for the new office, thus enabling the candidate to "go back to the well" for contributions to the new committee. (See Perdue, Moore, McCrory, Dalton, and Smith)

Does all of this work out for the candidates for governor? You bet it does. Perdue had personal wealth, a perception of winning the governorship, an existing fund raising mechanism as Lt. Governor replete with a donor list built over the years and finally a position of power, particularly since she was backed by the state's most powerful individual Senator Marc Basnight. Moore also had personal wealth, a position of power (check out the NYC trips), a perception of winning, and an existing campaign committee as Treasurer.

McCrory had the position of power (Mayor of Charlotte, although I still question how powerful it really is), a perception of winning (at least the primary), and an existing political committee that had just spent large sums getting him reelected as Mayor and thus a large existing contributor list to hit again in the race for governor.

Smith had the personal wealth and an existing contributor base from his State Senate position but not near as large I suspect as Perdue, Moore and McCrory. While he raised a decent amount of money, he undoubtedly spent an equal or even larger sum, raising it (not a formula for success).

Graham had the personal wealth and a tentative contributor list from his gas tax campaign but it never translated into contributions to his gubernatorial campaign. And I had no personal wealth, a lot of nice friends who contributed, but no existing political committee or contributor base and no position of influence to leverage contributions. Plus, from the beginning the word on the street was - no personal wealth and unable to raise the necessary funds.

So, the pundits can rest easy in that their insights that money would drive the race for governor turned out to be correct. In his bestselling book "Moneyball" Michael Lewis describes how Billy Beane and the Oakland A's baseball team has been able to compete as a low budget team against the well-financed giants of baseball like the New York Yankees. It might work in baseball, but nobody's come up with a comparable plan for big time politics.

The Charlotte Biz Community Starts Hedging Bets

Today's Under the Dome blog informs us that Mayor Pat has a major money shakedown coming up repleat with the big names of the Charlotte business community. Wasn't it only a few months ago that we kept reading about the corporate powers in the Queen City showering Richard Moore with campaign contributions? Looks to me that the big dogs are starting to question their earlier investment with Moore continuing to trail badly behind Bev in the polls. Not surprising since she claims to have solved every major problem facing our state since Reconstruction and is on a roll.

All of this leads to the inevitable observation that the Charlotte crowd just can't tolerate not having a candidate for governor totally beholden to them. How else can they be assured that tax dollars they think should be coming to Charlotte actually make it and government policies like "incentives" keep flowing.

But I have to give credit to the McCrory political bosses in how they have orchestrated the money issue. First, old Pat runs for Mayor, a virtual lock to win, and soaks up nearly $650,000 in contributions from fans and "players" wanting to make sure they had a continuing voice in local government decisions. Then, spending only about a third of the money raised, the McCrory campaign rolls the left over $400,000 into his campaign for governor. However, by not stepping down as Mayor, he put himself in the position of going back to those same generous souls who funded his race for mayor and getting a new round of money. Maybe they think they're investing in the governor's race or maybe it's a hedge against Pat losing and still being mayor. Anyway you slice the loaf, it means more bread for the McCrory campaign.

If You Got the Money, Honey, I've Got the Time......

The latest rash of money reports highlight numerous glaring points that need to be discussed. Regrettably, the mainstream media probably won't delve into where NC stands in the "pay to play" governor's race. However, I'll try to make a few observations and see if anybody cares.

Point 1: As most political observors already know, it is not a good year for Republicans generally to raise money - nationally or here in NC. The fact that Moore and Perdue have raised millions each, compared to all of the GOP candidates (not counting McCrory since his money comes from the Mayor's race) who in the aggregate don't even hit the 1 million mark, should give us all pause. Add to that the money raised for the Lt. Governor's race on the Democratic side as well as Treasurer and you get the drift.

Point 2: Perdue and Moore, having been raising money and pointing toward this governor's race since Jim Martin was governor, have a huge institutional advantage as evidenced by the PAC's and "professional" givers coughing up the big checks. It points out the one sided nature of state government and how all the special interest are betting on the predictable outcome by stuffing the loot into the Moore/Perdue treasury.

Point 3: It appears that Graham didn't try very hard to raise money which leads one to wonder whether he's just riding it out or is going to try and match Smith with the personal fortune. As for Smith's "successful" fundraising, it's really misleading. I always try and look at net fundraising results since it's easy to raise money but if you spend twice as much as you raise in the fundraisng effort, it really isn't such a plus.

Point 4: These totals are relative to the primary but we may see a vastly different scenario in the general. Perdue and Moore are going to drive economic development by spending millions and will end up on May 6th with virtually empty accounts. Now the winner will have plenty of money eventually but there won't be the kind of disparity you see now.

Point 5: The GOP primary will not be determined by money. The dynamics of a low turnout primary means that smaller amounts of money can be more effectively used and most voters will have a pretty good idea as to which candidate to vote for, regardless of all the mindless commercials run.

Point 6: The GOP winner will be able to raise competitive amounts of money for the general election as voters and contributors start to realize that electing a Republican governor in NC in 2008 is a distinct possibility. It will be an interesting fall campaign and anything can happen.