How McCrory Really Won the Nomination

I've followed the pundits' observations lately about how Pat McCrory won the GOP primary for governor. Now let someone inside the tent tell you the rest of the story. To begin with either the McCrory strategy for entering the race so late was both brilliant and Machiavellian or it was just extraordinarily lucky. Take your pick because I don't know if we'll ever know for sure. But take it to the bank, the way his strategy ultimately unfolded was absolutely perfect.

First, while Fred executed his 3 candidates strategy (Smith, Graham and Orr) and Graham, having parted with Fetzer-Stephens tried to figure out exactly what he did want to do with the campaign and I ran around trying to figure out how in the world I could raise some money, McCrory put together his run for re-election as Mayor. This allowed him to do several key things including raise over $800,000, spend a boatload of money running ads touting him as a mayoral candidate in the expanded Charlotte media market, and avoid putting himself out there as a target on issues in the governor's race. Winning the mayor's race with a big margin was another plus.

When McCrory finally did jump into the governor's race in January, he was able to have just come off a media campaign in the critical Charlotte market; roll over $400,000 from the Mayor's race into the Governor's race to jump start the campaign; and use the media to run weeks of "will he or won't he" stories thus preempting the other candidates with media coverage. Meanwhile, Smith was too far down the road on his 100 county BBQ tour and Lee Greenwood song fest to change strategies. Graham still hadn't figured out what he wanted to do but McCrory's presence in the race undermined any Charlotte media market plan he might have been contemplating. And what chance I had as the alternative to Smith and Graham to draw financial support out of Charlotte was eliminated.

McCrory (as all candidates did) then got a virtual free pass on substantive questions about his positions on the issues. He touted cutting the income tax but never had any specifics about how much, who would benefit etc. He campaigned on the need for anti-gang legislation and dodged a bullet when the Charlotte Observer's story on the gang legislation's limited value ran on election day. Mecklenburg DA Peter Gilchrist was quoted as saying in essence that the legislation really wasn't much value in the war on crime. McCrory campaigned on illegal immigration but no one in the media ever really called him to task on who should actually get credit for the 287G program in Charlotte or whether a detention center in NC really was a good idea. McCrory also touted his leadership but got another free pass from the press on issues like the water rate tax increase in Charlotte (no position taken), the Obama ad controversy (no position taken) or that the Charlotte Mayor's job really is pretty limited. Since none of his opponents were able or willing to aggressively take him on about these issues and the press played "love in", he got a free ride on the issues that he sold to primary voters.

Finally, Smith anticipated a GOP turnout of around 400,000. The 20% increase of an additional 100,000 plus voters caught him by surprise and played a major impact in McCrory's victory. These new 100,000 voters hadn't received a copy of Fred's book, been invited to a BBQ or had their hands pumped by one of us on-the-ground candidates. Most of these new voters were in the Charlotte media market and knew McCrory best from TV and figured he best could represent their concerns. While no one has done the research, I'd bet that of those 100,000 plus new voters, McCrory got 80% or his margin of victory.

So add all of this to the obvious points of Pat being a smooth, engaging candidate with a good public and media image and the fact that Charlotte can print big money faster than the US government. Did he plan it out this way? Who knows? But it sure worked like a charm.